Agradecimentos: This study was supported by grants from the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq projects: Nexus-Cerrado #441463/2017-7; PELD-Tang #441703/2016-0) and the National Science Foundation (INFEWS #1739724; DEB #1457602). A.A.R. received support from the CNPq (grant #141988/2020-7) and the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES grant #001); L.M. received support from the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP grant #2020/06085-1). We are grateful to colleagues at the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM), the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, the Woodwell Climate Research Center (Woodwell), and the Ecosystems Laboratory at the University of Brasília for their helpful input on earlier versions of this manuscript. Special thanks to Carl Churchill and Gregory Fiske from Woodwell for help designing the maps in Figures 1 and 8, and for thoughtful comments and suggestions on all maps and visualizations in this manuscript. Thanks also to Raoni Rebouças of Sepia Studio for help designing the illustration in Figure 9 Ver menos

Abstract: The Brazilian Cerrado is one of the most biodiverse savannas in the world, yet 46% of its original cover has been cleared to make way for crops and pastures. These extensive land-use transitions (LUTs) are expected to influence regional climate by reducing evapotranspiration (ET), increasing land surface temperature (LST), and ultimately reducing precipitation. Here, we quantify the impacts of LUTs on ET and LST in the Cerrado by combining MODIS satellite data with annual land use and land cover maps from 2006 to 2019. We performed regression analyses to quantify the effects of six common LUTs on ET and LST across the entire gradient of Cerrado landscapes. Results indicate that clearing forests for cropland or pasture increased average LST by ~3.5°C and reduced mean annual ET by 44% and 39%, respectively. Transitions from woody savannas to cropland or pasture increased average LST by 1.9°C and reduced mean annual ET by 27% and 21%, respectively. Converting native grasslands to cropland or pasture increased average LST by 0.9 and 0.6°C, respectively. Conversely, grassland-to-pasture transitions increased mean annual ET by 15%. To date, land changes have caused a 10% reduction in water recycled to the atmosphere annually and a 0.9°C increase in average LST across the biome, compared to the historic baseline under native vegetation. Global climate changes from increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will only exacerbate these effects. Considering potential future scenarios, we found that abandoning deforestation control policies or allowing legal deforestation to continue (at least 28.4 Mha) would further reduce yearly ET (by -9% and -3%, respectively) and increase average LST (by +0.7 and +0.3°C, respectively) by 2050. In contrast, policies encouraging zero deforestation and restoration of the 5.2 Mha of illegally deforested areas would partially offset the warming and drying impacts of land-use change Ver menos