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|Type:||Artigo de evento|
|Title:||A Model For The Estimation Of The Impacts Of System Availability On Cumulative Oil Production And Economic Return|
|Author:||De Carvalho M.H.|
Costa Lima G.A.
|Abstract:||Reservoir simulation generates oil and gas production curves over lifetime of reservoir which is the basis for the calculation of ultimate reserves, production forecasts, dimensioning of surface equipment and planning of activities related to production. This curve depends on the operational availability of the production systems which is an uncertain variable with value lower than 100%. The main objective of this paper is to present a methodology to estimate the impact of availability on operating equipment on oil production and also net present value. The authors have created a methodology that consists in using the information of reliability of the systems into the simulation computational model. An algorithm that considers the shutting and reestablishments of the systems as probabilistic events in order to model them in a more realistic operation scenario has been developed. This methodology has been applied to both light and a heavy oil field and some findings have been revealed and verified in reality. The cumulative production of both heavy and light oil does not present a significant difference when compared to the following cases: (1) reliability/availability information of the production systems is not considered; (2) reliability/availability information of production equipment is considered in a probability and realistic way. But, it has been noted that for both fields a delay in production occurs, affecting the cash flow and these results in significant differences in NPV, ranging between 7 and 17% for light oil field and between 12 and 50% for the heavy oil field. From these findings, the message is that if the company does not take the availability of the production system into consideration, even if the cumulative fluid production does not change, the economic return (NPV) may be overestimated.|
|Appears in Collections:||Unicamp - Artigos e Outros Documentos|
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