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Type: Artigo de periódico
Title: A Novel Demand Forecasting Model For Radical Innovation [um Novo Modelo De Previsão De Demanda Para Inovações Radicais]
Author: Neumann D.
de Santa-Eulalia L.A.
Yoshino R.T.
Klasen J.
Abstract: This work presents a novel simulation-based forecasting approach combining concepts from the Bass Diffusion Model and the Discrete Choice Model from a System Dynamics perspective. The proposed approach allows for the forecasting of the adoption rate and the timing of adoption by examining the underlying preferences of individual customers and the social forces that influence these underlying preferences. A real-scale preliminary application to the German market for electric cars, parameterized through a conjoint analysis, is provided. Simulation results show the potential of the proposed approach, which provides evidence for the main factors that influence the electric vehicle adoption process in Germany.
Editor: Associacao Brasileira de Engenharia de Producao
Rights: aberto
Identifier DOI: 10.1590/S0103-65132013005000077
Date Issue: 2014
Appears in Collections:Unicamp - Artigos e Outros Documentos

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