Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/87745
Type: Artigo
Title: Um novo modelo de previsão de demanda para inovações radicais
Title Alternative: A novel demand forecasting model for radical innovation
Author: Neumann, Donald
Santa-Eulalia, Luis Antonio de
Yoshino, Rui Tadashi
Klasen, Jörg
Abstract: This work presents a novel simulation-based forecasting approach combining concepts from the Bass Diffusion Model and the Discrete Choice Model from a System Dynamics perspective. The proposed approach allows for the forecasting of the adoption rate and the timing of adoption by examining the underlying preferences of individual customers and the social forces that influence these underlying preferences. A real-scale preliminary application to the German market for electric cars, parameterized through a conjoint analysis, is provided. Simulation results show the potential of the proposed approach, which provides evidence for the main factors that influence the electric vehicle adoption process in Germany.
Este trabalho apresenta um novo modelo para a previsão de demanda de inovações radicais baseada em simulação de Dinâmica de Sistemas que combina conceitos do modelo de difusão de Bass e do modelo de escolha discreta. Diferentemente de outras abordagens ex
metadata.dc.description.abstractalternative: This work presents a novel simulation-based forecasting approach combining concepts from the Bass Diffusion Model and the Discrete Choice Model from a System Dynamics perspective. The proposed approach allows for the forecasting of the adoption rate and t
Subject: Indústria automobilística
Country: Brasil
Editor: Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção
Citation: Producao. Associacao Brasileira De Engenharia De Producao, v. 24, n. 3, p. 605 - 617, 2014.
Rights: aberto
Aberto
Identifier DOI: 10.1590/S0103-65132013005000077
Address: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-65132014000300010
Date Issue: 2014
Appears in Collections:FCA - Artigos e Outros Documentos

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