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Type: Artigo de periódico
Title: Trends and cycles of the internet evolution and worldwide impacts
Author: Miranda, LCM
Lima, CAS
Abstract: In this paper we present a quantitative analysis of the evolution of some Internet and ICT evolution indicators. It focuses on the number of Internet hosts, the Internet penetration index, the ICT development index and the software/protocols development In addition, we analyzed the series of most impacting events building up the Internet along the last fifty years. These analyses were carried out using the multi-logistic procedure recently proposed by the authors. Our results for hosts counting, penetration index and software/protocols development are compatible with the onset of some radical changes in the Internet technology to be currently underway and we forecast new growth rate peaks to occur by 2015. The software/protocols were found to having been powered by bursts of creativity with periods of the order of the Kuznets and Kondratiev economic cycles. Similar conclusions were drawn from the series of main events building up the Internet. Despite the clear signs of worldwide improvement in the la infrastructure and usage between 2002 and 2007 obtained from the la development index, its cross-correlation with the human development index (HDI) revealed the presence of a group of countries whose improvements in the operational ICT index are disconnected from their corresponding HDI improvements. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Subject: Information and communication technologies
World GDP
Information development index
Functional and operational information development indices
Internet evolution
Internet socio-economic impacts
Multi-logistic modeling
Global digital inequality
Country: EUA
Editor: Elsevier Science Inc
Citation: Technological Forecasting And Social Change. Elsevier Science Inc, v. 79, n. 4, n. 744, n. 765, 2012.
Rights: fechado
Identifier DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.09.001
Date Issue: 2012
Appears in Collections:Unicamp - Artigos e Outros Documentos

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