Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/65661
Type: Artigo de periódico
Title: Estimation of volatility of selected oil production projects
Author: Lima, GAC
Suslick, SB
Abstract: In oil project valuation and investment decision-making, volatility is a key parameter, but it is difficult to estimate. From a traditional investment viewpoint, volatility reduces project value because it increases its discount rate via a higher risk premium. Contrarily, according to the real-option pricing theory, volatility may aggregate value to the project, since the downside potential is limited whereas the upside is theoretically unbounded. However, the estimation of project volatility is very complicated since there is not a historical series of project values. In such cases, many analysts assume that oil price volatility is equal to that of project. In order to overcome such problems, in this paper an alternative numerical method based on present value of future cash flows and Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to estimate the volatility of projects. This method is applied to estimate the volatility of 12 deep-water offshore oil projects considering that oil price will evolve according to one of two stochastic processes: Geometric Brownian Motion and Mean-Reverting Motion. Results indicate that the volatility of commodity usually undervalue that of project. For the set of offshore projects analyzed in this paper, project volatility is at least 79% higher than that of oil prices and increases dramatically in those cases of high capital expenditures and low price. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Subject: uncertainty
volatility
real options
oil projects
economic evaluation methods
Country: Holanda
Editor: Elsevier Science Bv
Rights: fechado
Identifier DOI: 10.1016/j.petrol.2006.07.005
Date Issue: 2006
Appears in Collections:Unicamp - Artigos e Outros Documentos

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