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Type: Artigo de periódico
Title: Quantifying the value of technological, environmental and financial gain in decision models for offshore oil exploration
Author: Suslick, SB
Furtado, R
Abstract: This paper suggests a framework to improve the quality of investment decisions in petroleum exploration. The proposed model enables the decision-maker to consider explicitly three major objectives when evaluating new petroleum ventures-financial, environmental and technological gain. The MultiAttribute Utility Theory (MAUT) provides a logical mean of decision for conflicting objectives. The MAUT is based on the risk preference of the firm, combining the objectives in the unique additive or multiplicative model. A high-dimensional sensitivity analysis technique is used for evaluating the weights of multicriteria decision models. The main advantage of this approach is that it allows a better simultaneous change of the weights and provides indications for a robustness control. The weights are obtained by a random process and are hierarchically adjusted using the analyst preferences. This paper proposes a study case comparing the application of this methodology in exploration projects located at five different offshore oil provinces in the Brazilian Continental Shelf. The MAUT methodology presented in this work demonstrates that, in some mature areas, the advantages of exploration are restricted only to financial gain. On the other hand, other seemingly less attractive areas, such as deep horizons in deep-water basins, may represent attractive targets for new exploration as a result of the interaction of technological advancement, and financial and market factors. The proposed approach allows the investigation of sensitivity for several options and alternatives. It also provides a rational tool for managers to make decisions according to firm preferences and objectives in complex oil prospects. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Subject: decision analysis
exploration risk strategy
MultiAttribute Utility Theory (MAUT)
Country: Holanda
Editor: Elsevier Science Bv
Rights: fechado
Identifier DOI: 10.1016/S0920-4105(01)00154-1
Date Issue: 2001
Appears in Collections:Unicamp - Artigos e Outros Documentos

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