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Type: Artigo
Title: Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks
Author: Zemp, Delphine Clara
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
Barbosa, Henrique M. J.
Hirota, Marina
Montade, Vincent
Sampaio, Gilvan
Staal, Arie
Wang-Erlandsson, Lan
Rammig, Anja
Abstract: Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complexnet-work approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest
Subject: Precipitação (Meteorologia)
Country: Reino Unido
Editor: Nature
Rights: Aberto
Identifier DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14681
Date Issue: 2017
Appears in Collections:IB - Artigos e Outros Documentos

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