Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/344937
Type: Artigo
Title: Voting contagion: modeling and analysis of a century of U.S. presidential elections
Author: Braha, D.
Aguiar, M. A. M. de
Abstract: Social influence plays an important role in human behavior and decisions. Sources of influence can be divided as external, which are independent of social context, or as originating from peers, such as family and friends. An important question is how to disentangle the social contagion by peers from external influences. While a variety of experimental and observational studies provided insight into this problem, identifying the extent of contagion based on large-scale observational data with an unknown network structure remains largely unexplored. By bridging the gap between the large-scale complex systems perspective of collective human dynamics and the detailed approach of social sciences, we present a parsimonious model of social influence, and apply it to a central topic in political science-elections and voting behavior. We provide an analytical expression of the county vote-share distribution, which is in excellent agreement with almost a century of observed U.S. presidential election data. Analyzing the social influence topography over this period reveals an abrupt phase transition from low to high levels of social contagion, and robust differences among regions. These results suggest that social contagion effects are becoming more instrumental in shaping large-scale collective political behavior, with implications on democratic electoral processes and policies.
Subject: Topografia
Transição de fase
Diversidade
Topography
Phase transition
Diversity
Country: Estados Unidos
Editor: Public Library of Science
Rights: aberto
Identifier DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0177970
Address: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0177970
Date Issue: 2017
Appears in Collections:IFGW - Artigos e Outros Documentos

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