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Type: Artigo
Title: Self-amplified Amazon Forest Loss Due To Vegetation-atmosphere Feedbacks
Author: Zemp
Delphine Clara; Schleussner
Carl-Friedrich; Barbosa
Henrique M. J.; Hirota
Marina; Montade
Vincent; Sampaio
Gilvan; Staal
Arie; Wang-Erlandsson
Lan; Rammig
Abstract: Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complexnet-work approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.
Subject: Tropical South-america
Tipping Elements
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
Citation: Nature Communications. Nature Publishing Group, v. 8, p. , 2017.
Rights: aberto
Identifier DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14681
Date Issue: 2017
Appears in Collections:Unicamp - Artigos e Outros Documentos

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