Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/241945
Type: Artigo de periódico
Title: Species Extinction Risk Might Increase Out Of Reserves: Allowances For Conservation Of Threatened Butterfly Actinote Quadra (lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) Under Global Warming
Author: Sobral-Souza
Thadeu; Francini
Ronaldo Bastos; Lima-Ribeiro
Matheus Souza
Abstract: Climate change is an important factor affecting species dispersal and distribution through time and the accelerated global warming has currently concerned decision makers and conservationists. Because protected areas are spatially static, species extinction risk is generally expected to increase under climate change scenarios as a consequence of range shift and decrease. This study aims to understand the current conservation status of Actinote quadra, a neotropical threatened butterfly species, as well as predict how it will be in the future. By coupling ecological niche modeling and climatic simulations, we predicted the species distribution in different future global warming scenarios (2050 and 2070) and estimated the proportion of species range overlapping protected areas through time. Our findings showed a generalized decrease of the potential distribution of A. quadra in the end of 21st century, with the most prominent range loss predicted to occur out of protected areas. Although climate change will potentially drive A. quadra into reserves, the predicted range collapse would be enough to increase its extinction risk from vulnerable, like currently categorized, to the status of critically endangered in accordance to IUCN red list criteria. Taking into account the fragmented and discontinuous landscapes across the Atlantic Forest's hotspot, we propose a conservation strategy for A. quadra based on potential ecological corridors linking climatically suitable areas and discuss the need for amplifying and connecting the current protected areas to maintain this threatened species at longer time under a global warming scenario. (C) 2015 Associacao Brasileira de Ciencia Ecologica e Conservacao. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.
Subject: Distributions
Uncertainty
Dynamics
Models
Domain
Area
Country: RIO DE JANEIRO
Editor: ASSOC BRASILEIRA CIENCIA ECOLOGICA E CONSERVACAO
Rights: aberto
Identifier DOI: 10.1016/j.ncon.2015.11.009
Address: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S167900731500047X
Date Issue: 2015
Appears in Collections:Unicamp - Artigos e Outros Documentos

Files in This Item:
File SizeFormat 
wos_000368260400010.pdf1.33 MBAdobe PDFView/Open


Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.