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|Type:||Artigo de evento|
|Title:||Maximization Of The Exploration And Development Efforts In Petroleum Field And Its Impact On The Hotelling's Model|
|Abstract:||Many works on dynamic models for the maximization of the Net Present Value (NPV) on upstream projects have been published in recent years, originating in the academy as well as the industry. These models usually treat the effort considering either the exploration stage or the development stage of the petroleum field, but not both together. In this paper, two purposes will be pursued: (1) Investigating of the optimum net present value in the upstream project considering both exploration and development efforts simultaneously, and (2) Comparing the impact of this model against the dynamic models that deal with the sustainability of the exploration of exhaustible resources according to Hotelling's rule (1931). On the first topic, some papers were published by Pakravan (1977), Peterson (1978), Pindyck (1978), Liu and Situnen (1982), and Nilssen and Nystad (1986). The present paper shows a model bearing resemblance to the model proposed by Nilssen and Nystad (1986) but without the simplifications assumed by it. For this reason, the model proposed here may be more realistic. Some of the questions addressed in this work are: (a) What is the optimum exploratory effort for a petroleum field? (b) For how long do the exploratory efforts deserve investment before the beginning of the development stage? (c) What is the appropriate value of the reservoir recovery factor? The maximization of the NPV is represented by an objective function. The influence of the parameters in the calculation of the proposed objective function is shown by means of sensitivity analysis. Among the the companies in the world exploring petroleum, several do not usually adopt a methodology combining the exploration and development efforts. Filling this gap in the methodology is the main motivation for this work, which intends to disseminate the use of the combined model in the analysis of the economic viability project of the upstream area. Finally, in the conclusion section, among other suggested guidelines, indications are given as to which parameters from this model eserve more attention from persons making hard decisions in the upstream projects, and which information from the exploration and development of a petroleum field must be collected from existing data, or specially treated. Copyright 2007, Society of Petroleum Engineers.|
|Appears in Collections:||Unicamp - Artigos e Outros Documentos|
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