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|Type:||Artigo de evento|
|Title:||Use Of Uncertainty Analysis To Improve Production History Matching And The Decision Making Process|
|Abstract:||In the present E&P scenario, decisions have to be taken considering risks. An important part of risk evaluation can be accomplished through the evaluation of the impact of uncertainties in the performance of the petroleum fields, yielding higher possibility of success, quantification of possible losses, minimization of sub-optimal development and identification of opportunities. The objective of this work is to use the quantification of the impact of geological uncertainties to improve the production history matching in a Brazilian onshore field located at Potiguar Basin with 17 years of production history. The main advantage of this process is to provide alternatives for possible adjusted models related to the global rate of liquids, oil and water, allowing the selection of the best model to the be latter refined and adjusted on a well to well basis. The key point of the applied methodology in the project is the use of the concept of geological representative models (GRM) which are selected based on the integration of objective functions previously defined to the context. These GRM models are selected to represent all combined models which compose the distribution curve (risk curve) of the process. The distribution curve is obtained through the concept of derivative tree technique which combines the possible scenarios using the numerical simulation to predict reservoir behavior. The numerical simulation is used to increase the reliability of the results allowing one more detailed analysis for each model. An automated tool and parallel computing are used to speed up the process. The utilization of the automated tool as well as a defined methodology to quantify the impact of uncertainties improved the viability of the history matching procedure with a significant reduction of time and effort in the repetitive tasks, improving its results and yielding a more reliable production forecast. Copyright 2006, Society of Petroleum Engineers.|
|Editor:||Society of Petroleum Engineers|
|Appears in Collections:||Unicamp - Artigos e Outros Documentos|
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