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|Type:||Artigo de evento|
|Title:||Forecasting The Development Of Heavy-oil Reserves In Ultra-deep Waters Using Technological Risk Models|
|Abstract:||The largest remaining reserves of heavy oil can be considered an important energy source for future supply. Recent discoveries of heavy-oil in ultra-deep environments have stimulated several companies in investing in these new assets for future revenues despite the uncertainties about technology development for future field exploitation. This paper presents a forecast model for assessing future technology achievements - necessary for the development of heavy oil fields in ultra-deep water - through logistic utility models. Using simulation results of three hypothetical fields with similar characteristics to some recent discoveries in Campos Basin in Brazil, a scenario for the next ten years was developed based on the decision to go ahead with the projects. A time-trend curve was employed to estimate the necessary period to achieve suitable technologies for field development (costs reduction) using a technological risk-aversion coefficient. The forecast model executes an economic sensitivity analysis on key input variables such as oil prices, oil characteristics (viscosity, API gravity), production profile, capital expenditures and operational costs. These uncertain parameters are important because production technologies for heavy oil in ultra-deep waters are not completely dominated by the industry. Simulations from three selected models indicated that under the worst CAPEX and OPEX scenario for heavy oil, a value reduction of 50% would be necessary for both parameters and the logistic model estimates that the technology would only be available after 10 years.|
|Appears in Collections:||Unicamp - Artigos e Outros Documentos|
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